QB Beta: Sensitivity to Team Performance

For an explanation on what fantasy beta is, read this:

Measuring Team Score Dependent Fantasy Performance: Fantasy Football Beta

RB Beta numbers can be found here.

In my last post, I showed that quarterbacks are the most dependent on their overall team performance (likely because they play the biggest factor). But which quarterbacks are the most dependent? Below is a table of the top 25 ranked fantasy quarterbacks this season (minus rookies) and their fantasy beta:

Name	Beta(*100)	Games
Hurts, Jalen	8.878	4**
Herbert, Justin	4.104	14**
Burrow, Joe	3.739	10**
Jones, Daniel	3.564	25
Brady, Tom	3.506	90
Stafford, Matthew	3.237	85
Murray, Kyler	3.109	31
Prescott, Dak	3.106	67
Tagovailoa, Tua	3.091	9**
Rodgers, Aaron	3.069	85
Cousins, Kirk	2.957	94
Allen, Josh	2.945	42
Darnold, Sam	2.931	35
Wilson, Russell	2.908	95
Roethlisberger, Ben	2.897	72
Carr, Derek	2.864	89
Bridgewater, Teddy	2.715	35
Winston, Jameis	2.690	69
Tannehill, Ryan	2.501	65
Jackson, Lamar	2.440	38
Mayfield, Baker	2.346	45
Ryan, Matt	2.245	94
Mahomes II, Patrick	1.606	45
Taylor, Tyrod	1.602	46
Wentz, Carson	1.562	66

****indicates a small sample size (<16)

Below is the same chart, grouped by team instead of player:

Team	Beta(*100)
HOU	3.897
DAL	3.539
LAR	3.492
CIN	3.363
DET	3.331
GNB	3.293
NYG	3.180
PIT	3.150
MIA	3.113
NYJ	3.034
CHI	3.026
TEN	2.992
LVR	2.928
NWE	2.862
JAC	2.837
CLE	2.775
CAR	2.763
WAS	2.728
SEA	2.679
LAC	2.659
IND	2.605
TAM	2.526
MIN	2.507
BUF	2.456
ARI	2.434
ATL	2.369
KAN	2.314
DEN	2.137
SFO	2.055
BAL	2.047
PHI	2.031
NOR	1.819

How do I interpret these numbers? 

This is explained in detail in my previous post, but let’s take Tom Brady for example. Brady’s beta is 3.506, meaning that for every additional point the Bucs score, Brady will score 3.506% more fantasy points on average. If the Bucs score 35 points, Brady is expected to have 87.65% more fantasy points than if they scored 10 (.03506*(35-10)). The higher the beta, the more dependent the player’s fantasy performance is on their team’s total score.

How can I make decisions based on these numbers?

In season-long fantasy, you can use it to make start/sit decisions. Say you have both Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield on your team, and you’re not sure who to start. Both are playing in games with high totals that are projected to be shootouts. Turning to fantasy beta, you notice that Stafford has a fantasy beta of 3.237, while Baker has a beta of 2.236. Based on this, Stafford is more sensitive to higher scoring, so the high total in his game should affect him more than Baker and may be the better start. The same thought process can be used when deciding who to stream.

In DFS, you can use it to determine high risk/reward plays. In a large tournament format (GPP), the goal should be to maximize upside and high potential. If you think a particular game will be very high scoring, using a high beta quarterback in that game will help maximize upside. In a cash game however, the goal is just to be above average. Here, you might turn to a low beta quarterback that isn’t as dependent on the final score to reduce risk and variance.

Posts for other positions will be posted in the next couple of days.