RB Beta: Sensitivity to Team Performance

For an explanation on what fantasy beta is, read this: https://detzelsportshome.wordpress.com/2021/09/21/measuring-team-score-dependent-fantasy-performance-fantasy-football-beta/ QB Beta numbers can be found here. In my last post, I found that QBs are the most dependent on team score, while RBs and WRs were less dependent and had about the same sensitivity to team performance. This post will focus on RBs. …

QB Beta: Sensitivity to Team Performance

For an explanation on what fantasy beta is, read this: https://detzelsportshome.wordpress.com/2021/09/21/measuring-team-score-dependent-fantasy-performance-fantasy-football-beta/ RB Beta numbers can be found here. In my last post, I showed that quarterbacks are the most dependent on their overall team performance (likely because they play the biggest factor). But which quarterbacks are the most dependent? Below is a table of the …

Measuring Team Score Dependent Fantasy Performance: Fantasy Football Beta

Fantasy football involves a substantial amount of randomness. A matchup can be won or lost based on a called back touchdown or freak injury. While there are new metrics created every week that try to cut down the noise, nothing can fully encapsulate the true skill or opportunity of a player. Outside factors such as …

Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 Results: Week 9 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-2-1 20-22-1 (.465) Metric Picks 5-7-1 49-49-2 (.490) Drive Picks 6-6-1 55-33-2 (.550) QBR Picks 8-4-1 45-53-2 (.450) Consensus picks finished 3-2-1 this week, once again hovering around .500. They finished with a total CLV of -1.0 this week and +16.5 this season. Here are my models' …

Week 10 NFL Picks

Week 9 Results: Week 9 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 2-3-0 17-20-0 (.459) Metric Picks 4-9-1 44-42-1 (.506) Drive Picks 5-8-1 49-27-1 (.563) QBR Picks 7-6-1 37-49-1 (.425) Consensus picks went in the other direction this week, finishing 2-3. The CLV of consensus picks was extremely high this week, mainly due to significant line movement in …

Week 9 NFL Picks

Week 8 Results: Week 8 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-2-0 15-17-0 (.469) Metric Picks 7-8-0 40-33-0 (.548) Drive Picks 9-6-0 44-29-0 (.603) QBR Picks 8-7-0 30-43-0 (.411) Consensus picks were positive again this week (albeit slightly), going 3-2. The CLV of these picks also flipped, with a total of +0.5 this week and +8.5 this …

Week 8 NFL Picks

Week 7 Results: Week 7 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 5-2-0 12-15-0 (.444) Metric Picks 10-4-0 33-25-0 (.569) Drive Picks 9-5-0 35-23-0 (.603) QBR Picks 7-7-0 22-36-0 (.379) Consensus picks were finally positive this week, going 5-2. However, the CLV of these picks also flipped, with a total of -1.5 this week and +8 this season. …

Week 7 NFL Picks

Week 6 Results: Week 6 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-5-0 7-13-0 (.350) Metric Picks 7-7-0 23-21-0 (.523) Drive Picks 8-6-0 26-18-0 (.591) QBR Picks 5-9-0 15-29-0 (.341) Once again, consensus picks finish in the negative, going 3-5 in week 6. However, they held positive CLV for the third straight week with +3, bringing the …

Week 6 NFL Picks

Week 5 Results: Week 5 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 2-4-0 4-8-0 (.333) Metric Picks 11-4-0 16-14-0 (.533) Drive Picks 10-5-0 18-12-0 (.600) QBR Picks 4-11-0 10-20-0 (.333) Another disappointing week, as consensus picks once again finished 2-4. The QBR model is clearly behind the others, so I will closely monitor it the next few …

Week 5 NFL Picks

Week 4 Results: Week 4 Results Consensus Picks 2-4 (.333) Metric Picks 5-10 (.333) Drive Picks 8-7 (.533) QBR Picks 6-9 (.400) Last week was a week of upsets, with road dogs surprising many.  The models didn't perform very well considering all the upsets, but hopefully another week of data can set things straight. This …