Week 10 Results: Week 9 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-2-1 20-22-1 (.465) Metric Picks 5-7-1 49-49-2 (.490) Drive Picks 6-6-1 55-33-2 (.550) QBR Picks 8-4-1 45-53-2 (.450) Consensus picks finished 3-2-1 this week, once again hovering around .500. They finished with a total CLV of -1.0 this week and +16.5 this season. Here are my models' … Continue reading Week 11 NFL Picks
Week 9 Results: Week 9 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 2-3-0 17-20-0 (.459) Metric Picks 4-9-1 44-42-1 (.506) Drive Picks 5-8-1 49-27-1 (.563) QBR Picks 7-6-1 37-49-1 (.425) Consensus picks went in the other direction this week, finishing 2-3. The CLV of consensus picks was extremely high this week, mainly due to significant line movement in … Continue reading Week 10 NFL Picks
Week 8 Results: Week 8 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-2-0 15-17-0 (.469) Metric Picks 7-8-0 40-33-0 (.548) Drive Picks 9-6-0 44-29-0 (.603) QBR Picks 8-7-0 30-43-0 (.411) Consensus picks were positive again this week (albeit slightly), going 3-2. The CLV of these picks also flipped, with a total of +0.5 this week and +8.5 this … Continue reading Week 9 NFL Picks
Week 7 Results: Week 7 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 5-2-0 12-15-0 (.444) Metric Picks 10-4-0 33-25-0 (.569) Drive Picks 9-5-0 35-23-0 (.603) QBR Picks 7-7-0 22-36-0 (.379) Consensus picks were finally positive this week, going 5-2. However, the CLV of these picks also flipped, with a total of -1.5 this week and +8 this season. … Continue reading Week 8 NFL Picks
Week 6 Results: Week 6 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 3-5-0 7-13-0 (.350) Metric Picks 7-7-0 23-21-0 (.523) Drive Picks 8-6-0 26-18-0 (.591) QBR Picks 5-9-0 15-29-0 (.341) Once again, consensus picks finish in the negative, going 3-5 in week 6. However, they held positive CLV for the third straight week with +3, bringing the … Continue reading Week 7 NFL Picks
Week 5 Results: Week 5 Results Season Results Consensus Picks 2-4-0 4-8-0 (.333) Metric Picks 11-4-0 16-14-0 (.533) Drive Picks 10-5-0 18-12-0 (.600) QBR Picks 4-11-0 10-20-0 (.333) Another disappointing week, as consensus picks once again finished 2-4. The QBR model is clearly behind the others, so I will closely monitor it the next few … Continue reading Week 6 NFL Picks
Week 4 Results: Week 4 Results Consensus Picks 2-4 (.333) Metric Picks 5-10 (.333) Drive Picks 8-7 (.533) QBR Picks 6-9 (.400) Last week was a week of upsets, with road dogs surprising many. The models didn't perform very well considering all the upsets, but hopefully another week of data can set things straight. This … Continue reading Week 5 NFL Picks
With statistics and metrics starting to level out at least a little, I will start posting NFL picks weekly from now until week 15. For more explanation on why I started now, why I'm stopping early, and in depth past results, read my model preview post here. Without further ado, here are my models' picks … Continue reading Week 4 NFL Picks
With the NFL season quickly approaching, I thought I’d give a little update on my plans for my NFL models this season. Before I talk about this season, though, I want to summarize model performance last season: Record Win % Profit ROI Drive Model 60-48-2 .545 6.55u 5.95% Metric Model 65-43-2 .591 16.09u 14.63% QBR … Continue reading 2019 NFL Model Preview
With the better part of the NFL offseason behind us, I figured I'd take a look at NFL season win totals and see where there may be value. I've created a model that runs through every NFL game and predicts the win probabilities of each team. Here are the factors the model takes into account … Continue reading Projecting NFL Win Totals
