With the better part of the NFL offseason behind us, I figured I'd take a look at NFL season win totals and see where there may be value. I've created a model that runs through every NFL game and predicts the win probabilities of each team. Here are the factors the model takes into account … Continue reading Projecting NFL Win Totals
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With the NBA regular season wrapped up, I thought it would be good to do a recap post on the model. Because of the completely different nature of playoff match-ups and more variables that the model cannot account for, I've decided to not run the model for the playoffs. That being said, here are the … Continue reading NBA Model Recap
2019 has been the year of the star in NBA. League superstars have taken over and produced some of the most insane stat lines and stretches of play in NBA history. With so many stars producing at a high level this season, I thought it would be interesting to attempt to rank every NBA player … Continue reading NBA Player Rankings 2/1/19
Only one match-up remains in the 2018-2019 NFL season, and it’s shaping up to be great one. In a clash between the established, dynastic Patriots and the cutting edge Rams, it’s anyone’s game. With this in mind, I simulated the Super Bowl 1000 times. For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored … Continue reading Simulating the Super Bowl
2019 has been the year of the star in NBA. League superstars have taken over and produced some of the most insane stat lines and stretches of play in NBA history. With so many stars producing at a high level this season, I thought it would be interesting to attempt to rank every NBA player … Continue reading NBA Player Rankings 1/25/19
With the NFL playoffs winding down, only four teams remain. While the wild card rounds was full of upsets, the divisional round saw all four favorites win, and what many believed to be the four most likely Super Bowl contenders left. With loads of intriguing story lines and positional match-ups, I simulation each conference championship … Continue reading Simulating Conference Championships
Wild Card weekend certainly lived up to it's name last weekend. 3 out of 4 games were decided by less than one possession, and 3 out of 4 underdogs came out on top. The divisional round features more great match-ups that are sure to be just as exciting. Given this, I decided to simulate each … Continue reading Simulating Divisional Matchups
This year’s CFP National Championship features familiar faces and experienced coaches. Alabama has made the CFP all five years, and has made the National Championship 4 of those years. Clemson has also been successful in the CFP era, making the playoff 4 out of 5 years and making the championship twice. Given the dominance of … Continue reading Simulating the National Championship
The NFL Playoffs are upon us, and Wild Card weekend features exciting rematches and great match-ups. Only one team is favored by more than 3 points (Bears), which means this weekend should be filled with toss-ups and close games. Given this, I decided to run simulations of all four games to see which teams may … Continue reading Simulating Wild Card Weekend
Twitter I've been tweaking the model over the past week, and finally have something that I believe works. Since 12/22, the model is 39-36 (.520). Doing deeper analysis, however, I have made some exclusions that make the model much more accurate: Games with spreads of 3 or less: Any game with a spread under 3 is … Continue reading NBA Model Update
