Wild Card weekend certainly lived up to it’s name last weekend. 3 out of 4 games were decided by less than one possession, and 3 out of 4 underdogs came out on top. The divisional round features more great match-ups that are sure to be just as exciting. Given this, I decided to simulate each divisional game 1000 times.
For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored and allowed per game for each team. Then, I averaged the expected performance of one team’s offense and the other team’s defense to arrive at a projected score for each team. Using a 10% home field advantage, I simulated each match-up 1000 times. Here are the results:
Colts @ Chiefs (-5) T: 57
Game:
| Colts | Chiefs | |
| Average Score | 25.2 |
29.9 |
|
Chance of Winning |
36.0% | 64.0% |
| Chance of Covering | 48.6% |
51.4% |
Totals:
|
Average Total |
55.2 |
| Chance of Over |
44.8% |
|
Chance of Under |
55.2% |
Value Picks:
Total Under 57
Colts ML +190
Cowboys @ Rams (-7) T: 49.5
Game:
| Cowboys | Rams | |
| Average Score | 21.4 |
27.9 |
|
Chance of Winning |
30.2% | 69.8% |
| Chance of Covering | 51.9% |
48.1% |
Totals:
|
Average Total |
49.4 |
| Chance of Over |
51.9% |
|
Chance of Under |
48.1% |
Value Picks:
None
Chargers @ Patriots (-4) T: 47.5
Game:
| Chargers | Patriots | |
| Average Score | 22.7 |
24.8 |
|
Chance of Winning |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Chance of Covering | 57.2% |
43.2% |
Totals:
|
Average Total |
47.4 |
| Chance of Over |
52.2% |
|
Chance of Under |
47.8% |
Value Picks:
LAC +4
LAC ML +170
Eagles @ Saints (-8) T: 51.5
Game:
| Eagles | Saints | |
| Average Score | 21.4 |
27.3 |
|
Chance of Winning |
33.0% | 67.0% |
| Chance of Covering | 56.0% |
44.0% |
Totals:
|
Average Total |
48.7 |
| Chance of Over |
42.3% |
|
Chance of Under |
57.7% |
Value Picks:
Eagles +8
Total Under 51.5
Eagles ML +315
Summary:
These simulations show just how wide open these playoffs are. It found no value in favorites (both ML and Spread), and found value in 3 out of the 4 underdogs in some way. Additionally, it found the two highest O/U to be too high, picking the under in each of them. All told, there are 7 value picks for this weekend:
- IND@KC u57
- IND ML +190
- LAC +4
- LAC ML +170
- PHI@NO u51.5
- PHI +8
- PHI ML +315
